Saturday, January 31, 2015

Year 5 Of Your 5-Year Investment Plan




It's time once again for my picks on the Super Bowl.

In four years, we've made $555. That was a total return of 6.37% on your investment of $8,710.

(If that sentence confuses you, you should probably not be betting - EVER, ON ANYTHING. Problems dealing with math makes bookmakers and casinos very happy.)

(Seriously. Put your money in the bank and enjoy a steady rate of return. What follows is not for you in any way, shape or form. It involves serious risk and one should never engage in serious risk unless one has some sort of conception concerning what the risks are.)

(Says the guy who was run over by a snowplow.)

If you wish to investigate the past investments, here are some links:

2011  results
2012  results
2013  results
2014  results

Not everything I said in those pieces came true, but enough of them did to make us money. That's all that's needed.

(All of the odds I'll quote come from THIS PLACE. I am not paid by them; I am not paid by anybody. I am not recommending you contravene the laws of wherever you are. Also, I will not be responsible for any losses incurred. I am, after all, a bozo.)

The bets that can be made on the Super Bowl are sometimes absurd. For instance, you can bet on the coin flip before the game. If you feel an overwhelming urge to bet on a coin flip (giving odds, because that's what you'd have to do to get some action) then you should definitely GO HERE. Some other bets sound even more ridiculous, but at least you might have an excuse for making them. You may have some inside information that makes the bet less ridiculous than it at first appears.

For instance: What color will Bill Belichick's hoodie be?

I'm as serious as a heart attack. Grey is the odds-on favorite, but you can get 15 to 2 on him wearing a red hoodie. You can also bet on whether the hoodie will have sleeves intact (3 to 2) or sleeves cut off (you have to lay 2 to 1). There's also a proposition on whether or not Belichick smiles on camera at any time during the game ("Yes" is the underdog.) Now, if you're Belichick's wardrobe guy, maybe you can make those bets and expect to win. And maybe if you slip him some sort of goofy pills in his morning coffee, you can make it an outstanding parlay. Otherwise, no.

(On the gambling website I linked to, my favorite disclaimer of all time accompanies these bets - No Hoodie is No Action.)

My other candidate for most ridiculous bet possible is one involving penalties called by the game officials. You can bet on whether the first penalty called will be for holding, offsides, pass interference, or four other possibilities. So maybe you know both teams have a tendency toward some penalty rather than another. You might rationalize it; hell, maybe you really can make a good bet at some of the odds offered. There is, however, one option for "No Penalty Called In The Game". They'll pay you 66 to 1.

Oh my good and gracious God. 66 to 1? If you want to bet there won't be a single penalty called in the entire game, I'll take your action. I'll pay you 27 bazillion to 1 and promise to give you oral sex in Macy's display window in downtown Boston during lunch hour as a bonus. NO penalties?  I'm sure that somewhere, in the history of the NFL, there have been penalty-free games; as a matter of fact, I'd bet on it. But in this game? There's a better chance of Belichick wearing a tie-dye tuxedo.

OK, that's enough about the idiotic things some folks will be betting on. It's now time for the idiotic things you'll be betting on if you follow my advice.

It will be short and sweet this year. I think the Patriots win this game. I'm not going to recommend a whole lot other than a straight up bet on that victory. so, to start...

Patriots  -2  330/300

That's the Patriots, giving two points, laying 330 to make 300.

(For the uninitiated - and why are you still here? - that means the Patriots have to win the game by 3 for us to win the bet. If they win by two, it is a tie and no money changes hands. If they win by only one, or if Seattle wins, then we lose. If you bet large amounts, you may be able to lay less than the 10% vigorish I quote here.)

Although I believe in that bet, I'm going to hedge it.

Marshawn Lynch to be named game MVP  70/350

If there's any player I'm scared of in this one, it's him. If Seattle wins, it will likely be because Lynch had a huge game. So, as insurance, I'll bet 70 to make 350 on his getting the MVP.


Total Bet = 400

Best Win = 650 (highly unlikely, since Lynch would have to get the MVP in a Patriots win. Possible, but the same sort of odds as Belichick patrolling the sidelines in a Speedo. In any case, if either bet wins, we make a profit of either 20 or 230.)


As usual, I expect you to send me 10% of your winnings if you follow my advice. Also as usual, I don't really expect that to happen.

Soon - that is to say, Monday - with more bettor stuff.

7 comments:

joeh said...

If the Pats win, Lynch gets mvp and there are no penalties I'll give you 10% of the earnings on my blog...providing you do NOT give me oral sex anywhere!!

Suldog said...

Deal!

(not necessarily your) Uncle Skip, said...

If anyone makes the no penalties bet, I want to have the exclusive rights to sell tickets to view the payoff.

Suldog said...

It's yours for 27 bazillion dollars.

Shammickite said...

I'll be eating chili and the game will be on the telly but I won't be betting on hoodies or anything else. And playing Skip Bo at the same time.

messymimi said...

Not a bettin' gal, but i love reading about how you do it.

Daryl said...

i am as always late to the party .. i hope you won …