Friday, January 31, 2014

Super Bowl Props, 2014


Time once again for my annual attempt to give you money.

This will be the fourth year I've posted my Super Bowl "prop" picks. "Props", or proposition bets, are the side bets one can make on the Super Bowl. Cumulatively, for the past three Super Bowls, you would have made $1105 if you had followed my advice. Here are the links to my past three posts on the subject.

2011
2012
2013

And, in case you don't remember what happened those years, here are the posts immediately following, detailing the results.

2011 results
2012 results
2013 results

I always stress that there are no guarantees. As with most investments, there are ups and downs. We made money two years, lost money one year. Here's the breakdown:

2011  + 530
2012  - 300
2013  + 875

One more bit of math, then on to the selections. Here is the total amount of money I asked you to invest each year, then the percentage return realized.

2011 - Risk = $3750  Return = +14.13%
2012 - Risk = $ 410   Return = -73.17%
2013 - Risk = $4000  Return = +21.88%
Total, Three Years - Risk = $8160  Return = +13.54%

If you think you can get a better return on your money for approximately 12 hours of investment, I wish you would write a piece detailing how.

(The usual disclaimers: I am not suggesting you contravene any laws. If gambling is not legal in your jurisdiction, then don't blame me when you end up in the slammer. Also, although I got all of my information for this year from this bookmaker, I am not being paid by them - or anyone else - and all moneys you risk are YOUR RISK. I will not cover your losses, if you lose. You're a big boy [or girl] and you know the deal. If you don't know the deal, and think you can't possibly lose, these people will set you straight.)

Ready? Here comes the analysis!

(If you're neither a football fan nor a degenerate gambler - in other words, if you're a female - I've probably already lost you. If not, and you want alternate entertainment, GO HERE and I'll see you in a few days.)

I don't see much on the board this year that's a bargain. My main concern is the weather. What with the game being played in a cold-weather outdoors venue, making futures bets is very iffy. If it snows, anything could happen. Even cold rain or just a sudden drop in temperature could affect things in a way unforeseen. If I knew for sure it was going to snow, or that it would be 8 degrees at game time, I'd lay it in on all sorts of bets. I don't, though, so no sense speculating with that as a consideration.

The one thing that shouldn't be affected by the weather is the overall closeness of this game. I don't see either team being able to run away and hide. The scoring chances may be affected, for better or worse, but the abilities of the teams to score (or stop the other team from scoring) will be relatively the same. That is, if it was 55 degrees and sunny, the score might be something like 34 - 28; if 12 degrees and nasty, maybe 21 - 17. So, since I believe this game will be a close one, whatever the weather, I'll take 3 props on the final margin of victory.

Seattle to win by 1 - 6 points (odds: 15/4)  Bet: 200 to make 750
Denver to win by 1 - 6 points (odds: 7/2)  Bet: 200 to make 700
Denver to win by 7 - 12 points (odds: 5/1) Bet: 150 to make 750

(I think Denver has a slightly better chance of getting outside the 6 point margin, so I want to cover that.)

Total Risk: $550
Best Possible Profit: $400

So there you have it. Since I'm only risking a portion of our profits from the previous three years, an overall gain for the four years running is still assured. Therefore, you can expect me to be back here again next year telling you what a great handicapper I am even if I screw the pooch this year.

Soon, with more bettor stuff.


12 comments:

Buck said...

"Ten Cutest Cat Moments?" I'd have done car crashes or something similar.

I'm neither a gambler nor an NFL fan but I did NOT watch the cats.

joeh said...

Oast performance is no guarantee of future results

Denver 34
Seattle 27

joeh said...

Past

Suldog said...

Buck - Sorry about that. Personally, I'm a cat guy. Anyway, it was labeled for the females, so...

Joe - Exactly.

messymimi said...

While i don't actually bet (i have no money to lose, the Jalopy is acting up a bit again), i read your bets with interest because i always learn something. And i might go back and watch the cats, too, depending.

Suldog said...

Mimi - I'm educational! Woo-Hoo!

(not necessarily your) Uncle Skip, said...

Here's a post for the guys.

Pitchers and catchers report in two weeks.

Ami said...

I didn't click on the link. Found out what it was by reading your comments. I think this link would appeal to a broader range of women. And some men. ;)

http://www.buzzfeed.com/melaniepoloff/40-shirtless-guys-in-kilts-dhod

Suldog said...

Ami - You're probably right :-)

Suldog said...

Oh, my. Seattle is running away and hiding. Denver has exhibited about the worst first half offensive performance I have ever witnessed in the Super Bowl.

joeh said...

So if I understand it correctly you would have cost me $550!

Oh well my prediction was Denver 34 Seattle 27 so...

I don't think Seattle is as good as they were tonight, and Denver isn't as bad, but clearly the best team won. Seattle made Denver look like they were in slow motion.

(not necessarily your) Uncle Skip, said...

My sentiments are here.