Wednesday, January 30, 2013

Props (2013)



The Super Bowl is this Sunday. As always, there are myriad ways to wager upon this absurd spectacle. Aside from the usual sorts of betting opportunities one finds for an NFL game (who will win, how many points will be scored, how many players will be arrested prior to kickoff) there are a number of what are called "proposition bets". These are wagers upon... well, just about anything under the sun.

My record over the past two years is +230. That is, if you followed my betting advice for the past two Super Bowls, you would have made 230 dollars. You would have made money in 2011 and lost money in 2012, but the overall bottom line is a plus. In order to make that money, you would have risked a total of 4150, which means I've given you a 5.54% return on your investment. That's better than any two-year CD would have gotten you AND your money would not have been subject to early withdrawal penalties.

(In years past, I have suggested that anyone following my advice should send me 10% of their winnings. Thus far, my mailbox has not been flooded with envelopes stuffed with cash. That's OK. By now, you should be thoroughly racked with guilt. I'll give you a great opportunity to feel better about yourself.

Knucklehead is trying to raise money for charity. To that end, he has set up a website [through active.com] in honor of a student at his school named Sam. He's 12, and just an amazing kid who happens to have Down Syndrome. If you make money on my picks - or even if you don't - how about going over there and making a donation?

http://www.active.com/donate/stridesforsam


Being out of work, the best I can do is send people there. So go, OK? Thanks!)

And now, back to gambling, he said, even though he just complained about being out of work.

(Obviously, I won't be laying down the cash on these bets. They will all be in my head. Whether you realize it or not, so are you.)

First, here's the site where I gathered the betting information - BetOnline. To be perfectly clear, I am not endorsing on-line gambling. And any risk you undertake is done of your own free will. Having said that, I am showing a profit for the past two years and... no, no, no. Use your head.

Now I want to show you a few of the truly nutso bets you could make. Look at these (all bets are given as "to 100", which is to say betting the favorite is to make 100 and betting the underdog you risk 100.)

Both coaches wearing hats (Yes, -1000, No, +600)

Beyonce - Mic or headset first (Mic, +175, Headset, -250)

Will Beyonce show cleavage during her first song? (Yes, -500, No, +300)

MVP will thank who first? (God, Even - Teammates, +200 - Coach, +300 - Parents, +600 - Fans, +600)

If you bet on any of those, I hope you have the phone number for Gamblers Anonymous on speed dial.

Here are the bets I would make this year if I had some excess liquidity. First large number is the money I'd risk, second large number is the possible payoff.

San Francisco, -7 1/2, 1500/2625

The regular betting line is San Francisco by 3 1/2. If you bet on San Francisco, they must win by 4 points in order for you to 'cover' (win) that bet. Conversely, you can wager on Baltimore and receive 3 1/2 points. Should Baltimore lose by 3 points or less (or win outright) you would cash that bet.

I'm not normally one to lay points, but I think San Francisco will win this game handily. I don't think there's a single aspect of the game wherein Baltimore has an edge (even yes, edge no). And I'm willing to give a few more points in order to get some odds in return. San Francisco is just plain better all around. I truly believe that.

(Of course, I also truly believed that The Three Stooges In Orbit would sweep the Oscars in 1963. The only one it got was Best Supporting Actor for Emil Sitka, so what do I know?)

Over 47, 2200/2000

This is a bet on the total points scored in the game. I wouldn't be surprised to see this one cashed by the end of the third quarter. Baltimore will not be able to establish a running game, so I expect to see a lot of passing from Joe Flacco. He'll connect on a few long bombs. He'll also give the 49'ers one or two interceptions. Meanwhile, this is Colin Kaepernick's year. There hasn't been a team yet that has shown an ability to completely hold him in check. The Niners have too many weapons for Baltimore to focus solely on Kaepernick, so there will be a lot of long gainers when the defense guesses wrong. Lay it in on this to be well over 47.

Speaking of Colin Kaepernick, you can get odds on him rushing for a touchdown in the game. I think that's worth a wager. I wouldn't be surprised to see him score on a naked bootleg.

(For you folks unfamiliar with the terminology, that's not something dirty. It just means a play where the quarterback goes opposite of his blockers - naked, unprotected.)

Kaepernick Scores Rushing Touchdown, 300/375

And that's about it. There were a few more exotic bets I considered, but none were quite good enough.

Our total wager is 4000 to make a possible 5000. If either of the two larger bets wins, that will be enough to cover the losses on the other two bets should they lose.

I cannot stress enough the fact that I am a bozo and will not accept any responsibility whatsoever should you be stupid enough to blow the mortgage money. Have fun. I'll be back on the Monday following the game to either crow about my successes or make pitiful excuses.

Soon, with more bettor stuff.


35 comments:

Craig said...

The only Prop Bet I ever kept track of, I would've won, if I'd actually bet it - Will Michael Jackson grab his crotch during the halftime show?

The hat bet could actually be semi-interesting. Back in the day, Bear Bryant always went hatless at the Superdome, because 'my mama taught me that it's impolite to wear a hat indoors'. See, and this time, both coaches, while generally hat-wearers on the sideline, were raised by the same parents. . .

Craig said...

And I'm just getting WAY too much mirth from the jocular potential of Mr. Kaepernik being both naked and unprotected. . .

Stephen Hayes said...

I'm not a football fan but I do love watching the commercials and eating Super Bowl snacks.

Juli said...

Um, Tony just comes home with a sheet full of squares. I pick one. End of story. So you kind of lost me. One year Youngest won $50. And you know for a seven year old (at the time) that's fantastic. Hell... that'd be fantastic for me. :)

I'll head over to Knucklehead's later today. Right now I'm organizing my husband's sports shit, um, I mean collectibles. It's always best to do it when he's not home. :)

The Broad said...

The Superbowl is now broadcast on the BBC. However, the commercials, arguably the best part, are not shown. I always feel cheated...

The Broad said...

Sully, I just do not understand the mathematics of betting. The only time I ever bet is on the Grand National. We draw the name of one of the horses from a hat and my husband heads of to the betting shop. We always bet one pound!!

joeh said...

I'm betting the over, 135...that's the number of times women will shush the men during time-outs so they can hear the commercials.

I wish they would stop the superstar crap half time show and bring back the Florida A+M marching band!

Janet said...

I'm guessing that since I only understood about 1/3 of the betting portion of this post that I shouldn't do it. Since we don't have TV we have to find someone who will take pity on us and let us into their house. However, it comes on so late and with the kids it's hard to get up for school the next day. We usually wait until the NCAA basketball tournament and fill out a bracket. My favorite method is the "Magic Penny." Heads is the top bracket and Tails is the bottom. Fill the whole thing out using that method. I won one year.

Barbara said...

Can you seriously bet on whether cleavage is shown or not? Those are some serious betters! Have you seen the movie Silver Linings Playbook? I think you'd get a kick out of it!

Chris@Knucklehead! said...

Thanks for the shout-out for Sam, Sully. It wasn't even that awkward a segue. Sam's got his lunch money riding on the "both coaches will wear a hat" wager. You have to assume one most DEFINITELY will at least post-game with the Championship hat and t-shirt combo.

'Course, if I'm either Harbaugh, I drop half a million on "no hats" and simply not wear one.

OldAFSarge said...

I suck at betting. If I were to bet on the sun rising tomorrow, I would lose that bet. (Yes, yes, I know technically it doesn't "rise".)

One time in Vegas, my sister-in-law and I were in a casino waiting for a ride. She plugs $40 into a slot machine and tells me to play (she lives in Vegas, I was a semi-reluctant tourist), so I push buttons, see numbers changing (it's not a traditional slot machine I think), bells chime, lights flash and after about 15 minutes the $40 is all gone.

My sister-in-law, smiling, says, "Wasn't that fun?" All I could say is, "What just happened?"

I suck at betting, always have. I once simulated a trip to Vegas by taking $500 out of the bank and tossing it, $20 at a time into a trash can. Trying to actually hit the trash can with a non-wadded up bill took some skill, I can tell you. I had to stop when the Missus got home and asked me "What the hell are you doing with my shopping money?"

Needless to say, I won't be wagering on the Super Bowl. But I will be watching.

Uncle Skip, said...

If any team, other than the 49ers, were playing I might have an interest in wagering on the game.
I have a personal rule about betting in games where a team I am a fan of is playing.
Nothing of real value, other than pride, can be involved.
I also learned that I have to be really careful about what the bet is.
My brother-in-law lost a bet about the World Series and he's the one who got the shirt.
I had to buy it... and pay shipping... even though I won the bet.
Who was the sucker?
Don't answer that!
Anyway... GO 'NINERS!

Uncle Skip, said...

"...both coaches... ...were raised by the same parents. . ."

How old were Bear Bryant's parents when these guys were born?

Uncle Skip, said...

If someone I trust offers, I may buy a square.

Craig said...

Since you asked. . .

John Harbaugh was born in 1962, Jim in '63. Paul Bryant was born in 1913, the 11th of 12 children born to his parents. So it seems safe to place his parents' (or at least, his mother's) birth sometime during the 1870s (on such short notice, I couldn't pin it down any closer than that, altho one of the genealogy sites would no doubt enable me to get much closer). So, Bear Bryant's mother, were she still alive when the Harbaugh brothers were born, would have been at least in her mid-80s when the Harbaugh boys were born. . .

Hey, you asked. . .

Uncle Skip, said...

Oh... so Bear Bryant's parents and the Harbaughs' parents aren't the same folks.
Your hat's indoors comment led me to believe. . .

IT (aka Ivan Toblog) said...

Psssst... hey buddy!

IT (aka Ivan Toblog) said...

I suppose if I wasn't a 49er fan, I would have more confidence

On paper they look pretty darn good... on both sides of the ball

There are probably enough intangibles to wreck anyone's predictions

Like, if Pollard gets a free shot at Kaepernick... oh, wait, there's that Smith guy as a backup

Buck Pennington said...

I am SO far outta my element here, both on the Enn-Frickin'-Ell and the fine art of wagering money I don't have that I'll just keep quiet.

Except to say "I was here."

lime said...

football and math....i got nuthin here...

oh, except a sure bet is that i won't be watching the superbowl. ;)

have fun!

Six said...

It's in the bag for the Niners. I mean, the Giants won the Series so it's fate. Written in the very stars. A mortal lock. Easy win. I swear. Of course I did pick Romney for the win so...

On the other hand I did win a fifth of an absolutely wonderful Kentucky bourbon from a friend in Louisville who was a Cardinals fan so...

Yeah, I'll be sticking my hands in my pockets and just enjoying the game. I mean I'm batting .500 and there's no sense in tempting fate.

silly rabbit said...

OW! Math hurts my head! Once I blocked it out, I laughed my way through the rest of the post and the priceless comments.
If I am only in your head, then so be it. Better that than what my grandpa used to call me...
"A filament of my indignation" which I took to mean that I had elevated his blood pressure.
I did buy a square on the Fiesta Bowl and won what I typically win... zilch. But my Ducks won, so who cares? Now I say, Go Niners!

sandyland said...

I'm expecting a good one at the Brobowl

SueAnn Lommler said...

LOL!! Interesting to say the least! I have never bet on a sports function. I figure the odds aren't very good. Ha! Me...I will just enjoy the game with my beer and nachos! Warm by the fire! Ahhh...now that is something to bet on!
Hugs
SUeAnn

messymimi said...

My biggest bet is fifty cents on who will win or lose -- i hate losing money. But i love reading your blog about it, and i hope you are right on all of them.

Daryl said...

once a long long time ago i worked with some sharks, er, handicappers, er, sport lovers .. there was a super bowl pick a box thing ... $5 a box .. somehow i won $100 ... that's my betting story ... think i will go donate ...

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Uncle Skip, said...

Hah!

Michelle H. said...

I don't understand one iota about betting, so I'll just nod my head sagely and agree with everything you said.

Joanna Jenkins said...

I have no idea on the betting or the game for that matter. I'm watching for the commercials ;-)
jj

Hilary said...

We're having a Super Bowl party here at Frank's place and judging by last year, I'm willing to bet that most of the women will not be watching most of the game.

In truth, I'd rather support a good cause than bet, so I stopped by your pal's donation page with my meagre contribution.

Shammickite said...

I know nothing about American Football, in fact I don't even know which teams are playing in the Super Bowl, but I am going to eat some chilli at my son's house on Sunday and watch his TV, even though I haven't a clue about what's going on. I just think it's amazing that they can draw those coloured lines on the field on TV but they're not really there. I'll watch Beyonce though....

Quirkyloon said...

Football and math hurts my head! heh heh

However, my only real interest on this Super Bowl Sunday is the commercials.

They can be quite amusing.

I liked to be amused.

heh heh

Babs said...

Who knew there were sites like that, although I should know better. Kudos to a donation link for a young boy and a good cause. I wish I could donate any way all gambling aside but I'm jobless too.
Every time the lottery goes up I like to think it's because I forgot to play that time. lol

Interesting though, I must've missed last years betting info.. Yesterday and today I have been a total klutz,knocking everything all which ways, if that's an indication of what the results would be should I bet..I'll forgo..and not being able to helps. Go Steelers!