Wednesday, January 30, 2013
The Super Bowl is this Sunday. As always, there are myriad ways to wager upon this absurd spectacle. Aside from the usual sorts of betting opportunities one finds for an NFL game (who will win, how many points will be scored, how many players will be arrested prior to kickoff) there are a number of what are called "proposition bets". These are wagers upon... well, just about anything under the sun.
My record over the past two years is +230. That is, if you followed my betting advice for the past two Super Bowls, you would have made 230 dollars. You would have made money in 2011 and lost money in 2012, but the overall bottom line is a plus. In order to make that money, you would have risked a total of 4150, which means I've given you a 5.54% return on your investment. That's better than any two-year CD would have gotten you AND your money would not have been subject to early withdrawal penalties.
(In years past, I have suggested that anyone following my advice should send me 10% of their winnings. Thus far, my mailbox has not been flooded with envelopes stuffed with cash. That's OK. By now, you should be thoroughly racked with guilt. I'll give you a great opportunity to feel better about yourself.
Knucklehead is trying to raise money for charity. To that end, he has set up a website [through active.com] in honor of a student at his school named Sam. He's 12, and just an amazing kid who happens to have Down Syndrome. If you make money on my picks - or even if you don't - how about going over there and making a donation?
Being out of work, the best I can do is send people there. So go, OK? Thanks!)
And now, back to gambling, he said, even though he just complained about being out of work.
(Obviously, I won't be laying down the cash on these bets. They will all be in my head. Whether you realize it or not, so are you.)
First, here's the site where I gathered the betting information - BetOnline. To be perfectly clear, I am not endorsing on-line gambling. And any risk you undertake is done of your own free will. Having said that, I am showing a profit for the past two years and... no, no, no. Use your head.
Now I want to show you a few of the truly nutso bets you could make. Look at these (all bets are given as "to 100", which is to say betting the favorite is to make 100 and betting the underdog you risk 100.)
Both coaches wearing hats (Yes, -1000, No, +600)
Beyonce - Mic or headset first (Mic, +175, Headset, -250)
Will Beyonce show cleavage during her first song? (Yes, -500, No, +300)
MVP will thank who first? (God, Even - Teammates, +200 - Coach, +300 - Parents, +600 - Fans, +600)
If you bet on any of those, I hope you have the phone number for Gamblers Anonymous on speed dial.
Here are the bets I would make this year if I had some excess liquidity. First large number is the money I'd risk, second large number is the possible payoff.
San Francisco, -7 1/2, 1500/2625
The regular betting line is San Francisco by 3 1/2. If you bet on San Francisco, they must win by 4 points in order for you to 'cover' (win) that bet. Conversely, you can wager on Baltimore and receive 3 1/2 points. Should Baltimore lose by 3 points or less (or win outright) you would cash that bet.
I'm not normally one to lay points, but I think San Francisco will win this game handily. I don't think there's a single aspect of the game wherein Baltimore has an edge (even yes, edge no). And I'm willing to give a few more points in order to get some odds in return. San Francisco is just plain better all around. I truly believe that.
(Of course, I also truly believed that The Three Stooges In Orbit would sweep the Oscars in 1963. The only one it got was Best Supporting Actor for Emil Sitka, so what do I know?)
Over 47, 2200/2000
This is a bet on the total points scored in the game. I wouldn't be surprised to see this one cashed by the end of the third quarter. Baltimore will not be able to establish a running game, so I expect to see a lot of passing from Joe Flacco. He'll connect on a few long bombs. He'll also give the 49'ers one or two interceptions. Meanwhile, this is Colin Kaepernick's year. There hasn't been a team yet that has shown an ability to completely hold him in check. The Niners have too many weapons for Baltimore to focus solely on Kaepernick, so there will be a lot of long gainers when the defense guesses wrong. Lay it in on this to be well over 47.
Speaking of Colin Kaepernick, you can get odds on him rushing for a touchdown in the game. I think that's worth a wager. I wouldn't be surprised to see him score on a naked bootleg.
(For you folks unfamiliar with the terminology, that's not something dirty. It just means a play where the quarterback goes opposite of his blockers - naked, unprotected.)
Kaepernick Scores Rushing Touchdown, 300/375
And that's about it. There were a few more exotic bets I considered, but none were quite good enough.
Our total wager is 4000 to make a possible 5000. If either of the two larger bets wins, that will be enough to cover the losses on the other two bets should they lose.
I cannot stress enough the fact that I am a bozo and will not accept any responsibility whatsoever should you be stupid enough to blow the mortgage money. Have fun. I'll be back on the Monday following the game to either crow about my successes or make pitiful excuses.
Soon, with more bettor stuff.