Friday, February 03, 2012

Super Money!



Around this time last year, I gave you $530.

Well, OK, I didn't give it to you outright. I did, however, give you the keys to the bank. I told you which wagers to make on the Super Bowl. If you had followed my advice, you would have made $530.

(If you don't believe the above claim, here's the proof - The Advice and The Outcome.)

Since not a single damn one of you sent me 10% of your profits, as I expected as payment for my letting you in on such financial wizardry, I was having second thoughts about cluing you in on the correct wagers to make this year. However, I am always an optimist (despite the numerous kicks in the ass) so I'll be nice and give you another chance to make some dough. But, if you don't send me my cut this time, you can expect... well, the possibility of incriminating myself in future prevents me from stating specifically what you might expect, and it would ruin the surprise, too. Suffice to say, having a naked Vince Wilfork sit on your... No, I've said too much already.



[Vince, Not Naked... Yet.]


What follows are called proposition bets. Every year, during the Super Bowl, there are hundreds of different bets than can be had from various bookmakers. Some are just plain ludicrous, and betting real money on them should entitle you to a mandatory Gamblers Anonymous meeting. For instance, you can bet on which team will win the coin flip before the game. Or you can bet on what Kelly Clarkson will wear when she sings the national anthem. Or what color the Gatorade dumped over the winning coach's head will be (you can get 6 to 1 on green - Oh, boy! Where's my mortgage?)

I kid you not. Go HERE for a full list of possible Super Bowl wagers.

(Disclaimer: I am not endorsing that site. I have not been paid by that site. I am not, in any way, suggesting that you should contravene the laws of your state, country, or other jurisdiction, by taking part in illegal gaming activity. But, if you feel an overwhelming need to get some scratch down on whether or not Madonna will wear fishnet stockings during the halftime show, I might be willing to fade your action.)

OK, let's make some money!

(Disclaimer #2: If we lose, that means YOU lose. Think of me as a broker. Even though I expect you to send me 10% of your winnings, I will not cover your losses. It is still gambling, no matter how much I expect these bets to make a gain overall. As the $5 hooker said, proceed at your own risk.)

The first bet that caught my eye (ouch!) was a proposition wherein you could bet who would receive the opening kickoff. Now, you may be saying to yourself, "Huh? Isn't that as much of a ridiculous thing as betting on the outcome of the coin flip?" Well, if you didn't talk to yourself so much, we'd get through this more quickly, but no, it isn't. The coin flip is a 50 - 50 proposition on which you have to lay odds. And there's no real way to handicap that, either. But, when it comes to who will have the ball first, that's another story.

The New England Patriots have consistently chosen to kick off whenever they've won the coin flip. That would give the New York Giants the ball first. Given the Patriots superb offense and sometimes lackluster defense, I wouldn't expect the Giants to hand them the ball if they win the coin toss. So, the correct bet would be the Giants to have the ball first. However, you'd have to bet 270 to make 100 on that. That's no bargain, so we'll skip it. BUT, there is another proposition that somewhat ties into who gets the ball first.

We can bet on which defense records the first sack (tackle of the quarterback for a loss.) Since we expect the Giants to have the ball first, that would mean the Patriots have first shot at winning this bet. And we can get odds on it, so it's attractive. The line is +120 (that is, bet 100 to make 120) for the Patriots. A small wager is in order here.

Patriots, First Sack, 50 to make 60

(The Giants have the better defensive front, and will have a better overall chance to make a sack, thus the odds if we bet on the Patriots. We're strictly looking to gain the edge on this one via the Giants having the ball on offense first. If past trends don't hold, and the Patriots have the ball first, this becomes a seriously iffy bet. That's why we're making it a small one.)

Bets can be had on the exact score of either team in the game. We'll hope that the previous bet comes in on the good side and risk that $60 profit on four bets for the exact score of the teams.

I expect the Giants to score between 27 and 31 points. I expect the Patriots to score 27 to 33 points. We'll buy four totals.

Giants, 27, @ 11 - 1, 20 to make 220

Giants, 30, @ 18 - 1, 10 to make 180

Patriots, 30, @ 17 - 1, 10 to make 170

Patriots, 33, @ 20 - 1, 20 to make 400


From those wagers, you'd suppose that I expect this to be a high-scoring game. You'd be right to suppose that. I don't think either team's defense will be able to completely stop the other team's offense. The Patriots have a better offense, while the Giants have a better defense. The line on this game (the sort of bet that is available for every NFL game during the season) is Patriots by 3 (that is, if you bet the Patriots, they must win by 4 points for you to win, and, if you bet the Giants, they could lose by 1 or 2 and you'd still cash your bet. An exact outcome of Patriots winning by 3 would be a draw, no win or loss either way.)

There's nothing in that line that makes me want to bet into it. As a matter of fact, I think that line is right on the money.

(Before the line was set on this one, I expected it to be Patriots by 6 or 7, and I would have bet on the Giants in that case. I was very surprised to see it open as low as 3.)

So, as I say, I think there's an excellent chance for this game to be decided by 3 points. If I absolutely had to make a prediction, I'd say 33 - 30 (but I don't absolutely have to make a prediction, so let's call it a guess!) Is there a bet here? Yes.

Game will be decided by 3 points exactly, 100 to make 325

A 33 - 30 outcome (or any of the exact scores we bet on earlier) would entail some field goals being kicked; at least one a side, and possibly a high of 7 total. While neither defense will completely stop either offense, they will stop them from scoring touchdowns every time. Both sides have an excellent kicker, and the game is being played in a domed stadium, making it easier for them both. So, let's see if there's a prop we like concerning field goals.

Why, here's one right now!

Both teams to make a field goal of over 33 yards, 200 to make 280

And that's that. We're risking a total of $410. Our best possible outcome is a profit of $1025. Of course, the lynchpin of this whole scheme is the "both teams making a 34-yard field goal or better", as winning that will cover all of the other bets and still make us a profit no matter what. If we lose that bet we can still make a profit by hitting the "game decided by exactly 3 points" bet. If we lose both of those bets, we need the Patriots to score 33 on the nose.

Isn't gambling fun?

Monday, one way or the other.



26 comments:

Stephen Hayes said...

I don't gamble because I never win. I'm better at finding things, especially in homes where the owners are away on vacation.

Craig said...

I hear you can get some nice action on what Madonna's gonna sing at halftime. . . Or whether her choreography will involve any simulated sex. . . (That's at least as good a bet as the one, years back, as to whether or not Jacko was gonna grab his package. . .)

Michelle H. said...

I have no idea what you said throughout this post. I'll just place a bet that there will be some stinker Super bowl ads that will make people scratch their heads and say, "WTH???"

What do you think of my odds?

Carolina said...

Yes well, I understood that someone could end up naked on someone's.... And that is about the only thing I understood.
Good luck to everyone who's betting on whatever ;-)

Sandi McBride said...

the only super bowl around here will contain either kibble, salmon or dip, according to Sunny's prediction...sorry, we're baseball folks...but I will check back to see what the outcome was...curiosity and all that...
Sandi (and Sunny from One Cat Shy of Crazy) lol

Uncle Skip, said...

What's the bet on Vince Wilfork ending up sitting naked on my sofa?
I missed it somewhere

Uncle Skip, said...

BTW - I'm gonna sell tickets to that if Grandma Skip will let me

Jackie said...

Somebody knows his stuff...
Like Michelle, I have no idea what you said throughout this post.
I hope you have a fantastic weekend, and I assume that there must be a football game on TV.
I always get a smile from your posts, Jim.

Unknown said...

Ay, yi, yi. First of all... Kelly Clarkson is singing the anthem? I thought Blake Shelton and his wife Miranda Lambert were...

And what are the wagers that I will be eating nachos?

HA!

You impress me what all your what ifs... and the amount of money you could possibly make from them.

Sounds familiar...

Wall Street anybody?

HA!

Quirkyloon said...

UNKNOWN!

I am NOT unknown!

heh heh

The Broad said...

Somewhere in the middle of that my eyes glassed over and I fell asleep -- which is appropriate considering the time the game is on over here! And whoever sings the National Anthem what are the odds they don't do it do death???

Barbara Shallue said...

My head started spinning somewhere in the 3rd or 4th paragraph, try as I might to understand. I'll be watching the commercials and halftime show for sure, though, as usual. And I bet she wears fishnets.

Buck said...

For instance, you can bet on which team will win the coin flip before the game. Or you can bet on what Kelly Clarkson will wear when she sings the national anthem. Or what color the Gatorade dumped over the winning coach's head will be (you can get 6 to 1 on green - Oh, boy! Where's my mortgage?)

Or... "Why I hate the frickin' NFL."

IT (aka Ivan Toblog) said...

Now I fully understand your comment on the Twisted Minds post

IT (aka Ivan Toblog) said...

BTW - enjoy the game

messymimi said...

The only way i will enjoy the game is if i don't have any money riding on it.

Thanks for these explanations, though. Gambling has never been something i've understood well (thus i don't).

Jenn Flynn-Shon said...

I bet on football once in my life. And only once. At the time in my life I did this I was broke, living with a guy who spent all our rent money on who knows what (I'm guessing the strip club but that's just a guess) and desperate not to be thrown out of my apartment.

It was a Patriots v. Broncos game back in the mid 90's. We had Bledsoe. A QB in my top 5 all time QB's who was in his prime. But they had Elway. I had to bet against the Pats. I won about $1000 and paid the rent and then some but I felt so bad about rooting against my home team I vowed never to do it again.

Of course soon after that I became a Packers fan so that tells you something. I don't know what, but something...

Uncle Skip, said...

About the only football bets I've had were the weekly "fun football cards" at work and the big pools where there are 100 squares. It's been awhile.
I always hurt my chances of winning on the football cards because I would always pick the 49ers (diehard fan) and when in doubt I'd take the home team.

kathrynmagendie said...

*pouting* Saints didn't make it. Panthers sure didn't make it. Lions didn't make it.

*pouts and sludges off*

Jeni said...

How about you come down to my house and enjoy our little Super Bowl party here and then, you can explain all this gambling stuff to me in person, on a play by play view. I tend to have to see things in operation to understand this stuff better. (Having chile and lime wings, sloppy joes and some kinds of pasta salad and stuff. BYOB though if you want beer cause I can't afford to supply beverages with food until after I win the lottery!

Ami said...

Vince isn't sitting on anything in my house without a towel under him. Naked or not.

As for the betting and all that happens with the Stuporbowl?

I. Don't. Care.

But I'd like to have the salary of even the guy who fills up the gatorade bucket.

i beati said...

We are trying to make 75.00 a quarter by picking the end of quarter scores..fun

silly rabbit said...

My head is spinning! I don't make bets because by the end of the explanation of the bet, I feel lost... which is why I probably lose.
But I hope you win your bets.

Chris@Knucklehead! said...

If I read that right, you're predicting the Giants to win 30-27.

And you call yourself a Pats fan.

And yes, I'm rooting for the G-men, of course. While I'm a Jet fan at heart, there's just no way I wouldn't root for a team from NY against a team from Boston.

Of course, I'd also root for a team from Medicine Hat, Alberta over a team from Boston, so I guess it's a moot point.

IT said...

I'd root for a team from Medicine Hat over any team from east of the Mississippi and most of the teams west of the Mississippi. They would have one advantage, too... am extra player on both offense and defense.

lime said...

i'm married to a giants fan and gave birth to a patriots fan. they have a whole lists of these various bets they made between them. my only bet was that i'd ignore 98% of the game, but no one took me up on that.